Foundations evo-edu.org

Study support for empirical reasoning in evolution and ecology.

Study Guide

Evidence And Cause Workbench

Use this guide to slow down before explaining a biological pattern.

Open application Landing page

Before You Start

The reasoning sequence

  1. Name the observation without explaining it yet.
  2. Choose a baseline or null expectation.
  3. List candidate causes that could produce the pattern.
  4. Separate empirical claims from progress, purpose, or value claims.
  5. Ask whether each cause is strong enough over the observed time scale.
  6. Check stochastic mechanisms, mixed-cause, model-boundary, and measurement alternatives.
  7. Flag what the exercise simplified to make the pattern easier to see.

Prompts

Observation

What exactly was counted, measured, or compared? What words would you remove if you were forced to describe only the pattern?

Baseline

What would you expect under random sampling, no directional mechanism, no intervention, or the stated null model?

Cause

Which causes are possible? Which are plausible? Which are strong enough to explain the size of the result?

Caveat

What did the exercise hold constant that a field study or real population would not hold constant? Which value words or progress words should be removed from the empirical claim?

Exit Ticket

Write one cautious claim

Use this frame: "The observed pattern is ____. Compared with ____, this suggests ____. I am not claiming ____ because that would add a value judgment or exceed the model. A stronger causal claim would require ____ because ____ could also contribute."